The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) approved a 50 per cent increase in call tariffs on Monday, which may raise the average cost of calls to ₦16.5 per minute.
According to The PUNCH, based on the 2023 national telephone traffic data, this hike could generate over ₦6.74 trillion in revenue for telecom operators in 2025 if call volumes remain stable, hence Nigerians may pay this amount to the firms.
However, this projection excludes the impact of free and discounted call promotions, which may alter actual revenue figures.
An analysis of data from the latest 2023 Subscriber/Network Performance Report by the NCC showed that in 2023, total outgoing telephone traffic was 205.3 billion minutes, while incoming traffic stood at 203.2 billion minutes.
The report read, “As of December 2023 total outgoing Local and National Traffic was 205,298,114,995.11 minutes while Total incoming Local and National Traffic was 203,187,588,876.00 minutes. MTN had the highest total outgoing and incoming Traffic of 122,667,600,437.00 and 123,762,501,615.00 minutes respectively in 2023.”
This implies that Nigerians spent about 408.5 billion minutes making local calls in 2023.
Since there was no fresh data yet for 2024, our analysis was based on the available data for 2023, which might vary for 2025.
Our analysis also excluded international calls, although Nigerians spent 1.5 billion minutes on international calls in 2023, according to the NCC.
Further analysis showed that MTN led the market, recording 122.7 billion minutes of outgoing traffic and 123.8 billion minutes of incoming traffic.
At the new rate of ₦16.5 per minute, MTN’s combined revenue from outgoing and incoming calls is projected to exceed ₦4 trillion, making it the primary beneficiary of the tariff adjustment and accounting for over 60 per cent of the market’s total revenue.
Airtel is expected to follow with a projected revenue of approximately ₦1.78 trillion, reflecting its strong share of both outgoing and incoming traffic.
Glo, the third-largest operator, is estimated to generate ₦536.2 billion.
Smaller players, including Smile and Ntel, are expected to earn ₦5.7 billion and ₦13.1 billion respectively, affirming their minimal market influence.
9mobile (EMTS) is likely to generate about ₦105.6 billion from its traffic volumes.
The projected ₦6.74 trillion revenue highlights the significant impact of the tariff increase.
Outgoing calls alone are expected to bring in ₦3.28 trillion, while incoming calls will contribute an estimated ₦3.23 trillion.
Despite the growing popularity of data services and over-the-top messaging platforms, voice calls remain a significant revenue driver for telecom operators.
MTN’s dominance in outgoing and incoming traffic reinforces its leadership position, with Airtel and Glo following as major contributors.
In contrast, smaller operators continue to face challenges, with limited market penetration and a smaller customer base impacting their revenue potential.
The PUNCH further observed that the 50 per cent tariff hike approved by the NCC will likely raise the average cost of an SMS to ₦6, and significantly boost revenue for telecom operators in Nigeria.
Based on the 2023 SMS traffic data, the projected earnings for 2025 could surpass ₦137.84 billion, assuming traffic remains unchanged.
