The World Bank has projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.6 per cent in 2025, building on an estimated expansion of 3.4 per cent in 2024, as key macroeconomic reforms begin to stabilise the business environment.
The bank also said Nigeria is now home to 15 per cent of the world’s extremely poor people, according to its latest Africa Pulse report released in April 2025.
The bank’s latest economic forecast, which is contained in the Spring 2025 edition of Africa’s Pulse, reflects a more optimistic view than that of the International Monetary Fund, which revised Nigeria’s 2025 growth rate downward to 3.0 per cent in its April 2025
According to the World Bank, the projected recovery is anchored on improved performance in non-oil sectors, notably financial services, telecommunications, information technology, and a gradual rebound in oil production, which is expected to align with Nigeria’s OPEC+ quota.
The multilateral lender anticipates that the country’s economic growth will further strengthen to 3.8 per cent by 2027, assuming current reforms are sustained, The PUNCH reports.
The report stated, “Economic growth is expected to remain moderate in Nigeria. It is expected to increase from 3.4 per cent in 2024 to 3.6 per cent in 2025, and slightly increase to 3.8 per cent in 2026–27.
“The gradual recovery of the Nigerian economy along the forecast horizon is driven primarily by the service sector—specifically, finance, information and communications technology services, and transportation—and, to a lesser extent, a rebound in oil production that converges to its OPEC+ quota.”
In contrast, the IMF’s outlook remains cautious, citing persistent structural constraints and weaker oil receipts as key factors weighing down growth prospects.
The Fund projects that economic expansion will slow to 2.7 per cent in 2026.
On inflation, the World Bank projects that headline inflation will ease to 22.1 per cent in 2025, down from 26.6 per cent in 2024, with further moderation to 15.9 per cent by 2027. These forecasts are based on adjusted CPI figures following the rebasing exercise by the National Bureau of Statistics in January 2025.
The NBS had revised the base year of the Consumer Price Index from 2009 to 2024 to reflect current consumption patterns. As a result of the rebasing, inflation fell from 34.80 per cent in December 2024 to 24.48 per cent in January 2025, before rising slightly to 24.23 per cent in March, highlighting ongoing cost-of-living pressures.
However, the IMF offers a less optimistic outlook, projecting inflation to average 26.5 per cent in 2025 and spike to 37.0 per cent in 2026. The Fund attributes the stubborn inflation to structural inefficiencies, a weak supply response, and exchange rate volatility despite ongoing reforms.
The World Bank also identified the naira as one of Africa’s worst-performing currencies in 2024, having lost over 40 per cent of its value. The sharp depreciation followed the government’s decision to unify exchange rates and transition to a market-determined FX regime.
Despite the steep fall, the World Bank noted that recent reforms have improved FX liquidity and helped stabilise the naira in early 2025.
On the external front, Nigeria’s current account position is expected to remain strong. The World Bank projects that the current account surplus will rise slightly from 9.2 per cent of GDP in 2024 to 9.4 per cent in 2026. This outlook is underpinned by lower imports, increased remittances, and higher oil exports.
The IMF, however, forecasts a narrowing of the surplus to 6.9 per cent in 2025 and 5.2 per cent in 2026, warning that prolonged oil prices below Nigeria’s fiscal breakeven of $60 per barrel could undermine the external balance
JP Morgan and Fitch Ratings have expressed mixed views, with the latter projecting a moderate surplus averaging 3.3 per cent of GDP over 2025–2026.
According to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria, the country recorded a balance of payments surplus of $6.83 billion in 2024—its first in three years—driven by a goods trade surplus of $13.17 billion.
