Petrol importation remained the dominant source of fuel consumed in Nigeria in 2025, accounting for 62.47 per cent of the country’s total Premium Motor Spirit consumption.
This trend persisted despite the commencement of operations, steady ramp-up in production and distribution of petrol by domestic refineries, notably the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, alongside state-owned refineries and several modular facilities, as revealed in the latest midstream and downstream sector factsheet released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
According to the newly released NMDPRA factsheet on the state of the midstream and downstream petroleum sector, total national petrol consumption by Nigerians stood at approximately 18.97 billion litres in 2025, with oil marketing companies accounting for 11.85 billion litres through imports, highlighting the market’s continued dependence on foreign supply.
This means that nearly two-thirds of petrol consumed by Nigerians in 2025 was sourced from imports, while domestic refineries contributed about 7.54 billion litres, representing 37.53 per cent of total consumption, the regulator stated.
These totals were derived by applying the daily average consumption to the number of days in each month. The data, which are based on volumes trucked into the domestic market, underscore Nigeria’s continued dependence on fuel imports, even as the Dangote refinery, currently the country’s only operational large-scale refinery, ramped up supply during the year.
Meanwhile, the volume of petrol imports is expected to decline significantly in 2026 if the Federal Government proceeds with the planned implementation of a 15 per cent import tariff on Premium Motor Spirit, slated to take effect in the first quarter of 2025, in line with a policy memo approved by President Bola Tinubu.
For decades, Nigeria, Africa’s largest crude oil producer, relied almost entirely on imported petrol following the prolonged underperformance of its state-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna. This dependence deepened after the refineries became largely dormant, forcing the country to meet domestic demand through imports financed with scarce foreign exchange and, for years, supported by a costly petrol subsidy regime.
The structure of the market began to shift in late 2024 with the commencement of operations at the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery, widely regarded as a potential turning point for Nigeria’s downstream sector. The refinery, alongside smaller modular refineries and limited output from state-owned facilities, was expected to significantly cut import volumes, improve energy security, and stabilise fuel supply across the country.
However, regulatory data from the regulatory Authority show that while domestic refining and distribution improved steadily in 2025, imports remained dominant. The NMDPRA attributes this to factors including the gradual ramp-up of refining operations, crude supply arrangements, logistics constraints, and demand fluctuations following the full deregulation of petrol pricing.
2025 represents the first full year of large-scale domestic Premium Motor Spirit supply, limiting year-on-year comparisons, particularly as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery only commenced petrol distribution in the final quarter of 2024.
Regulatory data showed that between October and December 2024, total petrol consumption stood at 4.77 billion litres, out of which imports accounted for 3.61 billion litres, while domestic refineries supplied about 1.17 billion litres.
Against this backdrop, a breakdown of the factsheet showed that Dangote refinery accounted for virtually all domestic PMS supply in 2025, supplying an average of between 17 million and 32 million litres per day, depending on the month, and a total of 7.534.9 billion litres for the entire year.
Based on its supply framework with the regulator and the Federal Government, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery was expected to deliver about 600 million litres of petrol monthly, translating to an annual benchmark of 7.2 billion litres.
However, NMDPRA data showed that the refinery supplied 7.54 billion litres in 2025, representing a shortfall of about 336 million litres, or roughly 4.7 per cent below the annual target, despite improved output towards the end of the year.
The PUNCH
