Stakeholders, including energy experts, economists, and Nigerian workers, have raised alarm over the suspension of petrol imports by the Federal Government, urging urgent price regulation as Dangote Petroleum Refinery takes command of Nigeria’s ₦14.4 trillion petrol market, signalling a major shake-up in the nation’s energy sector.
On Wednesday, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) confirmed that it had not issued any import licence for petrol this year, saying that it was no longer needed because local production now meets national requirements.
Data from the NMDPRA, a Federal Government agency, showed that Dangote refinery accounted for about 92 per cent of Nigeria’s daily petrol supply in February, as the regulatory agency stopped the importation of petrol.
Figures released in the February 2026 fact sheet by the NMDPRA showed that local refineries supplied 36.5 million litres per day of petrol in February 2026, while imports contributed just three million litres per day.
This brought the total national daily supply for February to 39.5 million litres, with domestic refining accounting for roughly 92 per cent of the volume, a sharp shift from the long-standing dependence on imported fuel. The data indicates a drastic drop in imports compared with the previous month.
Dangote refinery is the only plant producing petrol currently in Nigeria. Other modular refineries produce diesel. Taking a low-range price of ₦1,000/litre for petrol, and the total consumption of 39.5 million litres per day in February, it implies that the petrol market in Nigeria is worth over ₦14.4 trillion annually. This will however vary from time to time as the global crude price fluctuates.
The confirmation by the NMDPRA that it suspended petrol importation because the country now has enough domestic supply generated diverse reactions from stakeholders on Wednesday.
The NMDPRA warned against the return of petrol imports, as the Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, declared during a live television programme on Wednesday that the government would not tamper with market pricing of petroleum products, stressing that intervention would only be considered as a last resort.
“Rather than now reverting and taking a backward step, we will look at every other measure that can help the cost of living of Nigerians without resorting to non-market pricing,” Edun stated.
An energy expert, Professor Emeritus Wumi Iledare, said the government should allow competitive petrol supply instead of import substitution. While describing that announcement as a significant policy signal, Iledare said it could trigger market speculation and a scramble for market power.
The behaviour, he said, could manifest through precautionary stockholding, opportunistic pricing, or attempts to secure logistical and supply advantages. “The announcement by NMDPRA suspending the issuance of new petrol import licences, on the grounds that local production is sufficient to meet domestic demand, is a significant policy signal in Nigeria’s evolving downstream petroleum market.
“However, such announcements can also trigger market speculation. In a transitioning market structure, participants may interpret regulatory signals differently, leading to strategic positioning and, in some cases, scrabbling for market power. This behaviour can manifest through precautionary stockholding, opportunistic pricing, or attempts to secure logistical and supply advantages,” he said.
The don argued that the data showing reduced imports alongside lower overall PMS supply in February suggested that the market was still searching for equilibrium. “The data showing reduced imports alongside lower overall PMS supply in February suggests that the market is still searching for equilibrium between domestic refining output, inventory management, and distribution capacity.
“For policy effectiveness, regulatory communication must therefore be clear, predictable, and supported by verifiable supply assurance mechanisms. Market confidence improves when participants are certain that domestic production, logistics infrastructure, and pricing frameworks can consistently sustain national demand. Ultimately, the goal should be competitive market stability — not just import substitution,” Iledare submitted.
Similarly, the Chief Executive Officer of petroleumprice.ng, Jeremiah Olatide, warned that relying on a single refinery for the bulk of Nigeria’s petrol supply could expose the country to major supply shocks. He noted that the production boost by the refinery was artificial and not natural.
“It is quite great that in two years, Nigeria has achieved over 90 per cent of its petrol consumption produced in the country. But at the same time, we have to be very careful of the energy risks it imposes. A country like Nigeria that is quite fragile, and has a policy that is not properly implemented.”
According to him, the Dangote refinery currently supplies around 50 million litres of petrol daily, accounting for roughly 90 per cent of Nigeria’s estimated consumption. Olatide stressed that competition must be allowed to develop naturally in the market to ensure energy security.
“Relying on the Dangote refinery to supply an average of 50 million litres daily, in tune with 90 per cent of our daily consumption, is a complete energy risk. Competition must be natural. It must be allowed in an economy like Nigeria. We have over 200 million Nigerians who consume around 70 million litres of petroleum products on a daily basis. Any little glitch from the Dangote refinery might pose an energy crisis and even a security crisis for the country,” he warned.
To ensure stability, he proposed a more balanced supply structure that would combine local refining and imports. “For me, a 70:30 balance would be better. 70 per cent locally refined products and 30 per cent importation will give us that balance and energy security.
“But 90:10 is too much for an economy like Nigeria that does not yet have very strong institutions to monitor these things. The combination of 70 locally refined products and 30 per cent of importation will give us that balance and energy security,” he said.
Olatide also criticised recent restrictions on petrol import licences, which he said had artificially boosted the Dangote refinery’s market share. While acknowledging the need to support local refining, he argued that restricting imports could distort the market.
According to him, competition combined with access to crude oil in naira for local refiners would naturally lower petrol prices and gradually eliminate the need for imports.
“In the month of February, because of the refusal of NMDPRA to give import licences, the Dangote refinery was able to achieve a lot, and I feel that move is an artificial move. Market forces are supposed to play out. What I mean by this is to allow both parties to compete.
“Though I understand that for us to grow our economy, we must encourage local refining. But giving out only a few import licences in the first quarter is not acceptable. The three million average imports per day shouldn’t be acceptable. It makes up 10 per cent, which is quite dangerous.
“So, for me, I think competition should be allowed to play out and give Dangote access to crude in naira. If this were done, prices would drop and chase out importation. With lower prices alone, importation will die a natural death. But restricting imports through licence withdrawal is an artificial methodology,” he said.
He added that even major economies maintain a level of imports to protect supply security. “Even China recorded above 15 per cent importation recently, and the United States reported about 12 per cent of refined product imports. So, why will Nigeria do just 10 per cent? We should allow the transition to play out gradually instead of jumping from about 40 per cent local supply last year to over 90 per cent in just two months,” he said.
Nigeria has struggled for decades with fuel supply challenges due to the poor performance of its state-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna, forcing the country to rely heavily on imported petrol.
The commissioning of the 650,000-barrels-per-day Dangote refinery in Lagos has significantly altered the structure of the downstream sector, reducing imports and boosting local refining capacity.
The PUNCH