Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.89 per cent in real terms in the first quarter of 2026 amid a decline in crude oil production, with growth driven largely by agriculture, telecommunications, financial services, construction, and trade activities.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday showed that the country’s Gross Domestic Product grew faster than the 3.13 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of 2025, extending the economy’s recovery momentum amid continued dominance of the non-oil sector.
The bureau stated, “Gross Domestic Product grew by 3.89 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the first quarter of 2026, higher than the 3.13 per cent recorded in the first quarter of 2025.”
It added that agriculture grew by 3.15 per cent during the quarter, compared with 0.07 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2025, while industry recorded a growth rate of 3.50 per cent from 3.42 per cent a year earlier.
The services sector grew by 4.31 per cent, slightly below the 4.33 per cent recorded in the same period of 2025.
The report showed that the services sector remained the largest component of the economy, contributing 57.73 per cent to aggregate GDP, compared with 57.50 per cent in the first quarter of 2025.
In nominal terms, aggregate GDP at basic prices rose to ₦110.79 trillion in the first quarter of 2026 from ₦94.05 trillion in the corresponding period of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.79 per cent.
Despite the overall improvement in economic growth, crude oil production declined during the quarter.
According to the NBS, “The nation in the first quarter of 2026 recorded an average daily oil production of 1.55 million barrels per day (mbpd), lower than the daily average production of 1.62 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2025 and lower than the fourth quarter of 2025 production volume of 1.58 mbpd.”
The oil sector, nevertheless, recorded real growth of 2.57 per cent year-on-year, higher than the 1.87 per cent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025.
However, its contribution to total real GDP declined marginally to 3.92 per cent from 3.97 per cent a year earlier.
The non-oil sector continued to account for the bulk of economic activity.
“The non-oil sector grew by 3.94 per cent in real terms during the reference quarter (Q1 2026),” the report stated.
The bureau explained that the sector’s performance was driven mainly by telecommunications, crop production, trade, cement manufacturing, financial institutions, real estate, construction, and road transportation activities.
The non-oil economy contributed 96.08 per cent to real GDP during the quarter, slightly above the 96.03 per cent recorded in the same period of 2025.
A breakdown of sectoral performance showed that agriculture contributed 23.16 per cent to real GDP, although this was slightly lower than the 23.33 per cent contribution recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.
Crop production remained the dominant agricultural activity, accounting for 66.76 per cent of the sector’s nominal value.
Manufacturing also strengthened during the period, recording real growth of 3.29 per cent, higher than both the corresponding quarter of 2025 and the preceding quarter. The sector accounted for 9.57 per cent of real GDP.
The Information and Communication sector emerged as one of the strongest growth drivers, expanding by 10.98 per cent in real terms and contributing 11.31 per cent to total GDP, compared with 10.59 per cent in the first quarter of 2025.
Similarly, the Finance and Insurance sector grew by 8.54 per cent in real terms and contributed 3.76 per cent to GDP, while the construction sector expanded by 6.38 per cent and accounted for 4.85 per cent of economic output.
The NBS identified trade as the largest contributor to real GDP in the first quarter of 2026, accounting for 17.89 per cent of output. Crop production followed with 17.38 per cent, while real estate contributed 13.10 per cent. Telecommunications and Information Services accounted for 9.19 per cent, construction contributed 4.85 per cent, and crude petroleum and natural gas represented 3.92 per cent.
Other sectors posting positive real growth included transportation and storage at 7.41 per cent, accommodation and food services at 4.36 per cent, arts, entertainment and recreation at 11.25 per cent, and water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation services at 10.32 per cent.
However, the Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply sector contracted by 15.30 per cent in real terms, while the Other Services sector recorded a decline of 1.96 per cent.
The latest GDP figures, however, fell short of projections by the World Bank, which had expected stronger economic expansion this year despite recent adjustments to its outlook.
The World Bank, in its April 2026 Africa’s Pulse report, revised Nigeria’s growth forecast downward, citing rising global uncertainties and volatility in energy markets.
The Washington-based lender projected that Africa’s largest economy would grow by 4.1 per cent in 2026 and 4.2 per cent in 2027, down from its earlier forecast of 4.4 per cent for both years.
The bank attributed the downgrade to heightened geopolitical tensions, weaker global demand, and instability in oil prices, warning that these factors could weigh on growth prospects despite ongoing macroeconomic reforms and improvements in non-oil economic activity.
The PUNCH