Nigeria’s economy is showing signs of recovery following a sharp surge in domestic revenues and a notable turnaround across major financial indicators, according to an internal economic assessment by the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS).
Tax collections rose by 113 per cent from ₦12.3 trillion in 2023 to ₦27 trillion as of July 2026. The NRS attributed the sharp increase to structural changes, including system digitisation, four new reform laws, internal agency transformation, and an executive order designed to plug revenue leakages.
According to the report, the revenue gains reflect broader progress under President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, which sought to address four persistent structural challenges: an unsustainable fuel subsidy, an opaque foreign exchange system, a stagnant oil sector, and a severely underperforming tax base.
While acknowledging that early reform measures induced severe economic friction, the authority maintained that the macroeconomic outlook has shifted. In its assessment, the NRS stated: “The Nigerian economy has moved decisively from acute macroeconomic distress toward a more stable and increasingly resilient footing.”
Key indicators reflect this shift across the trade, energy, and financial sectors. Daily crude oil output rose from 1.2–1.3 million barrels in 2023 to 1.73 million barrels by July 2026. Driven partly by the naira-for-crude framework with the Dangote Refinery and domestic processors, Nigeria transitioned from a long-term importer to a net exporter of refined petroleum—a policy model recently adopted by Ghana.
The balance of payments recovered from a $3.34 billion deficit to a $2.38 billion surplus in Q1 2026, while the trade surplus expanded from ₦44.7 billion to ₦7.55 trillion over the same period. Unrestricted external reserves climbed from $3.99 billion in 2023 to $51.9 billion by July 2026, reaching a 17-year high.
Investor confidence spurred a rise in market capitalisation on the Nigerian Exchange, growing from ₦30.36 trillion in 2023 to ₦161 trillion in 2026, alongside stronger foreign direct and portfolio investment inflows. The report noted declining inflation rates and highlighted that the national minimum wage doubled between 2023 and 2026.
The NRS concluded that the convergence of higher tax yields, expanded oil production, growing foreign reserves, and robust capital inflows demonstrates an economy steadily stabilising after initial post-reform shocks.