Nigeria’s expenditure on imported arms and ammunition surged by 104.31 per cent during the first half of 2026, reaching ₦55.06 billion compared to ₦26.95 billion recorded over the same timeframe in 2025.
Data released in the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) second-quarter foreign trade report confirms that more than ₦55 billion was spent on weaponry within six months, raising fears over weapons proliferation as the nation prepares for general elections.
This spike in armaments coincides with preparations by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for the 2027 general elections, with Presidential and National Assembly votes slated for 16 January 2027, followed by Governorship and State Houses of Assembly polls on 6 February 2027.
Border control authorities have also noted an influx of illegal weaponry, with the Nigeria Customs Service intercepting approximately 603 illicit firearms between January and August 2026, subsequently transferring them to the National Centre for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons.
Security experts and civil society organisations have consistently linked the proliferation of weapons to potential disruptions during election cycles. A study by the CLEEN Foundation assessing security conduct during the 2026 Osun State governorship election highlights the operational vulnerabilities present during voting exercises.
While the Foundation observed an adequate security presence in the majority of monitored polling stations, officers temporarily abandoned their posts in six per cent of instances, and two per cent of units were left completely unstaffed. Continuity of security presence remains essential, as the organisation noted that “opportunistic interference is most likely” in the final hours of voting and the period immediately after, when queues clear and ballot boxes are prepared for transit.
Visibly armed personnel were recorded at 37 per cent of monitored locations, aligning with standard deployment procedures. However, force was applied by officers in two per cent of sites, and threat incidents were logged at 12 per cent of polling centres. Security coverage during ballot box transport was confirmed at 86 per cent of monitored locations, though separate media tracking revealed six localised reports of violence, including gunfire near a traditional ruler’s palace and disruptions by political thugs.
To safeguard future polls, the CLEEN Foundation recommended that law enforcement authorities “sustain, rather than relax, officer presence and vigilance” through the collation and transmission stages, warning that risks to voters, party agents, and observers escalate after polls close.
Additionally, the Foundation urged the Federal Government to establish a specialised judicial body to prosecute electoral offenders, cautioning that existing enforcement gaps foster a “climate of impunity” that undermines deterrence against electoral malpractice.