A fresh national survey by election observation group Yiaga Africa has revealed that whilst up to 84 per cent of Nigerians express an intention to participate in the 2027 general elections, rampant insecurity, declining trust in the electoral umpire, and scepticism toward judicial dispute resolution threaten to suppress actual participation at the polls.
Doubt over institutional integrity poses a major hurdle, as overall trust in the Independent National Electoral Commission has slipped to 34 per cent from 45 per cent recorded in previous survey iterations. Although public confidence in electronic systems sits higher—with 49 per cent trusting BVAS accreditation and IReV result uploads—63 per cent of citizens doubt the judiciary will resolve post-election disputes impartially. That lack of faith in judicial fairness peaks at 81 per cent in the South-South region.
Security concerns form the single largest obstacle to voter turnout, with 82 per cent of citizens fearing violence could impact the 2027 contest and 61 per cent admitting safety fears could keep them away from polling stations entirely. Consequently, just 47 per cent described themselves as very likely to cast their ballots.
The findings, unveiled in Abuja, stem from Yiaga Africa’s National Voting Intentions Survey 3.0. Conducted across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, the poll sampled two thousand, four hundred and seventy Nigerians aged 18 and above, using two thousand and sixty-six telephone interviews alongside 404 face-to-face engagements in rural communities.
Yiaga Africa’s Head of Knowledge Management and Learning, Safiya Bichi, stressed that low participation reflects institutional shortcomings rather than voter indifference, pointing out that citizens still value their civic duties but face systemic barriers.
“Nigerians have not given up on elections. They want to vote, they see it as their duty and they believe their votes can make a difference. What stands between that willingness and the ballot box is fear, distrust and money,” she stated, urging immediate action before the presidential election on 16 January 2027.
Speaking at the launch, Hussaini Abdu, Chairman of Yiaga’s Board of Trustees, explained that the study aims to highlight critical operational gaps rather than deliver a final verdict on voter behaviour.
“It’s a wake up call to Nigerians and to civil society organizations, and everyone that is involved in elections, that this election is very important to the country. It’s important for democracy. And there are some of the gaps that have been identified in this report, that we can work on,” he said.
Abdu urged political parties to actively mobilise their voters, warning against a recurrence of the 2023 elections where turnout dropped to just 27 per cent despite more than one hundred million registered voters. He added that while simple majorities determine outcomes, having a small minority elect leaders undermines democratic governance.