In an effort to establish a fully commercial energy sector, Nigeria is set to end regulated pricing in its domestic gas market by 24 September 2028.
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) plans to manage a 24-month transition toward a fully established willing-buyer, willing-seller framework, aligning with the national target to transform into a gas-powered economy by 2030.
The roadmap was outlined on Thursday during the Gas Market Maturity Workshop in Abuja, hosted by the Petroleum Technology Development Fund under the Decade of Gas initiative. NMDPRA Chief Executive Rabiu Umar stated that the transition would mark the first time the country has established a definite timeline for deregulating its gas market under the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).
“Gas must be affordable for Nigerians while supporting President Ahmed Tinubu’s investment reforms. This transition is in line with the Nigeria decade of gas goal to become a gas-powered economy by 2030,” Umar said.
Umar explained that shifting from regulatory price coordination to commercial contracts requires meeting clear indicators and safeguards rather than relying on general statements of intent. Key criteria for market readiness include supply diversity, contractor reliability, payment stability, transport infrastructure access, and transparent pricing signals.
Despite Nigeria’s extensive gas reserves, the regulator warned that domestic supply remains constrained. Umar highlighted the necessity of matching infrastructure expansions, such as the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano pipeline, with sufficient gas volumes to ensure economic viability.
“If you look at supply, for example, on the domestic side, it is still tight, no matter how you look at it. We have a lot of work to do in our infrastructure space,” he noted, adding, “The focus right now is not just delivering the infrastructure, but ensuring that we have enough molecules to fill the pipeline.”
To prepare the regulatory environment, the NMDPRA is concluding consultations on new rules against anti-competitive practices to protect open competition as its role evolves toward market oversight. The authority is also finalizing the issuance of gas distribution licences, with qualified firms set to receive approvals in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Expanding domestic consumption of compressed natural gas (CNG), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and liquefied natural gas (LNG) remains central to the agency’s strategy. Officials stated that increased local gas utilization will bolster power generation, diminish fuel import dependency, and minimise long-distance electricity transmission losses.
Addressing the capital requirements of the sector, Umar noted that gas projects demand substantial upfront funding and predictable regulatory conditions.
“For you to take an FID in a gas investment, you need to have a long-term contract,” he said, confirming the authority’s willingness to collaborate with project developers to facilitate development.
Stakeholders at the workshop expressed support for the commercial timeline while stressing the need for structured execution. Coordinating Director of the Decade of Gas Secretariat, Ed Ubong, affirmed that the transition could be completed well before 2030. He revealed that the initiative has identified 16 key infrastructure projects and over 60 demand-side projects capable of generating approximately 15 billion cubic feet per day of demand, alongside a target to raise daily gas supply to 12.6 billion cubic feet.
Similarly, the President of the Nigerian Gas Association (NGA), Engr. Mrs Yetunde Taiwo, called for clear milestones to prevent a premature or delayed transition.
“As NGA, what we would like to see really is to see those goalposts, those milestones that have been set, that makes it a realistic journey for us to say we have achieved a willing buyer, willing seller status,” Taiwo stated, urging close collaboration between policy makers, regulators, and private investors to deliver a dependable gas market.